I Have a Theory About Luke P.’s ‘Bachelorette’ Fate & I Don’t Like It One Bit

*Warning: Spoilers ahead*

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, Bachelorette fans, but Luke P. probably isn’t going anywhere just yet.

When the CrossFit teacher captured Bachelorette Hannah Brown’s heart early on and won the first impression rose, he didn’t seem all that bad. But then he started waxing poetic about how he was “falling in love with” her after two hours of getting to know her. (Can anyone say “wrong reasons” alert?)

If that wasn’t bad enough, he completely devolved into the equivalent of an irrational hormonal teenager in last night’s episode. And while both he and the farcically self-involved Cam were both in the running for villain of the season, it was Cam who went home. It’s hard to tell who was the lesser of two evils, but with Luke P. still in the running for Brown’s final rose, I have a theory about his ultimate fate, and it all comes down to a simple Bachelor Nation formula.

There are typically 11 episodes in any given season of The Bachelorette. In the first or second episode, one contestant usually starts babbling about “falling in love with” the Bachelorette. Between episodes two and four, two villains typically emerge (think Alex and Chad in Jojo’s season). One is tattled on to the Bachelorette by the other men and is sent home. The other villain, against the Bachelorette’s better judgment, is given a second chance and usually sticks around until an episode before or after the hometowns (Alex in the aforementioned scenario). The hometowns usually occur during episode seven or eight of the season and are prefaced by a drama-filled international trip that makes the Bachelorette question her relationships under a more critical lens.

So, if Brown follows this pretty tried and true formula of Bachelorettes past, then Luke P., God help us, will probably be around until episode six, seven or eight. It seems like Peter or Jed will win the final rose, but Luke P. will likely stick around at least three more episodes so he can really stir the pot.

Hey, the episode four promo does show footage from “later” in the season of Luke P. getting heated in a European-looking living room so he probably makes it until the big international trip. It’d be awesome if I’m wrong because he’s basically the worst, but we’ll have to wait and see…